Microsoft's AI bets: Anthropic's up, OpenAI's... not
What happened
In its Q4 FY2026 earnings, Microsoft disclosed a $3.2 billion gain on its Anthropic investment — a stake it made just months earlier as part of a $5B-for-$30B-in-Azure-credits deal. Meanwhile, its much older, much bigger OpenAI investment got marked down $600 million for the same quarter.
Why this matters
Microsoft owns roughly 27% of OpenAI and has poured billions into it for years, so a write-down — even a small one relative to Microsoft's $90B quarterly revenue — is a signal worth watching. It's a rare public data point in the otherwise opaque world of AI lab valuations.
The slightly cynical read
Microsoft didn't have to disclose this comparison so clearly — but doing so quietly reminds the world (and maybe OpenAI) that Redmond has other, newer, shinier friends now. Diversifying your AI bets is smart business; making sure everyone notices which bet is winning is just savage.
What to watch next
Watch whether Microsoft's OpenAI stake keeps sliding as the relationship gets more competitive (Copilot vs. ChatGPT, anyone?), and whether Anthropic's Azure spending commitments actually materialize at the promised scale.